What Donald Trump’s presidency means to energy & environment

GOP 2016 Debate

The Trump presidency was not great news to climate change supporters. It was not the outcome many hoped for, and could potentially pose a significant threat by demolishing any progress made in the Obama administration for climate and environment.

Calling climate change a hoax that the Chinese fabricated to gain unfair advantage, he vowed to pull out of the Paris agreement on climate change first thing he comes on board. He will also remove any form of carbon taxing and deregulate any bans on drilling or fracking. Many coal workers voted for Trump in hopes that he can revive the coal industry to its glorious past. However, this proves to be unrealistic and likely impossible.

Renewables aside, coal is no longer competitive on any front. Successful fracking for natural gas in tight shale formations has enormously increased America’s natural gas production, keeping prices low, and outcompeting all other energy sources, especially coal and nuclear. It doesn’t make a lot of financial sense to expand coal use again within the United States.

As for the renewable energy sector, wind companies saw their shares tumble the first few days after the election. Fears have been building up in the renewable industry that his win means a big loss to them. Trump has a personal history with some wind projects which he thinks are against the advancement of his private businesses. One example is his fight against wind farms built across his golf course in Scotland, because it “blocked the views” of his golf course.

Tax credits are the lifeblood of renewables. Concerns about Trump rewinding the tax credits and hurting the renewable energy industry have been raised but may not crystallize in the way we envisioned. The Republican-controlled Congress already extended the renewable energy Production Tax Credit to 2021, and there also are various state tax credits and the Renewable Portfolio Standards — laws requiring a certain portion of a state’s power generation mix to come from renewable sources — to consider.

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Pure economics will dictate the fate of the futures of renewable energy. The price of wind per MW is already cheaper than coal and solar is quickly catching up. Time-wise, it is also smarter to invest in solar farms as they take only a few months to come online where as coal-fired plants can take up to years. Solar and wind will continue rising at a fast pace in the next few years, and their growth will be driven mostly by state rather than federal policies. Even without tax credits, their prices are falling, making them naturally competitive.

However, let’s remember: all talk of Trump’s actions may deem futile as his words are rarely gone to fruition at the end of the day. Case in point: he has started reconsidering his stances on climate change and expressed that he would like to see “clean air and crystal clear water”.

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